Rising Electric Vehicle Sales Impact Global Markets – and Automotive Design

Sales of electric vehicles (EV) – both battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and hybrid/plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV/PHEV) – have been growing steadily in recent years, but the conditions now exist for that growth rate to accelerate dramatically. Globally, sales of EVs came to just over 3.1 million units in 2020 (representing a 4.7% market share), but an analyst firm Canalys predicts that by 2030, EVs will account for 50% of new passenger vehicles sold.

电动汽车 (EV) 的销量——包括纯电动汽车 (BEV) 和混合动力/插电式混合动力电动汽车 (HEV/PHEV)——近年来一直在稳步增长，但现在有条件使该增长率达到急剧加速。在全球范围内，2020 年电动汽车的销量略高于 310 万辆（占 4.7% 的市场份额），但分析公司 Canalys 预测，到 2030 年，电动汽车将占新乘用车销量的 50%。

There are several reasons that help to explain this trend. The first of these is regulation – for example, at the recent COP26 climate change conference, governments, OEMs and other stakeholders signed an agreement to transition to 100% zero-emission sales of new cars and vans by 2040. The combination of incentives (lower taxes on EVs) combined with penalties (taxes on high emissions vehicles) needed to meet these targets will aggressively drive an increase in production and sales of EVs.

有几个原因有助于解释这一趋势。首先是监管——例如，在最近的 COP26 气候变化会议上，政府、原始设备制造商和其他利益相关者签署了一项协议，到 2040 年新车和货车的销售将实现 100% 零排放。激励措施（较低对电动汽车征税）与实现这些目标所需的处罚（对高排放车辆征税）相结合，将极大地推动电动汽车生产和销售的增长。

High prices are another reason consumers have been slow to switch to EVs. However, a projected 20x reduction in the cost of Lithium-Ion batteries by 2030 will help to make them more affordable. Similarly, the lack of EV charging infrastructure has been a barrier, but this problem will soon be overcome by the EU and US investing $60B by 2030 (rising to $192B by 2040) in the deployment of chargers. Likewise, the market for EV charging equipment in China is expected to reach an annual level of $43B USD by 2025[1].  Improved battery technology will also allow EVs to travel further, removing “range anxiety” as a concern for consumers.

高价格是消费者缓慢转向电动汽车的另一个原因。然而，预计到 2030 年锂离子电池的成本将降低 20 倍，这将有助于使它们更加实惠。同样，缺乏电动汽车充电基础设施一直是一个障碍，但欧盟和美国到 2030 年投资 60B 美元（到 2040 年增加到 192B 美元）部署充电器很快就会克服这个问题。同样，到 2025 年，中国电动汽车充电设备市场预计将达到每年 43B 美元的水平[1]。改进的电池技术还将使电动汽车行驶得更远，从而消除消费者担心的“续航里程焦虑”。

In addition, societal perception of EVs is also changing. As consumers become more environmentally conscious and EVs become more commonplace, they are becoming more widely accepted. This is likely to become an even stronger trend that speeds up the move away from internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles.

此外，社会对电动汽车的看法也在发生变化。随着消费者的环保意识越来越强，电动汽车越来越普及，它们也越来越被广泛接受。这可能会成为一个更强大的趋势，加速从内燃机 (ICE) 驱动的车辆的转移。

Figure 1: Types of Electric Vehicle 

图 1：电动汽车的类型

More Advanced Does Not Mean More Complicated

更高级并不意味着更复杂

Ironically, while EVs represent a newer vehicle platform than ICE-powered vehicles, they are conceptually much simpler. Whereas an ICE vehicle has several hundred moving parts, EVs have fewer than two dozen. This makes them easier to manufacture, more reliable and therefore easier for consumers to maintain.

具有讽刺意味的是，虽然 EV 代表了比 ICE 动力车辆更新的车辆平台，但它们在概念上要简单得多。内燃机汽车有数百个运动部件，而电动汽车只有不到两打。这使它们更易于制造、更可靠，因此更易于消费者维护。

This simplification, combined with new remote design techniques using virtual reality and other advanced tools, is reducing the time it takes to complete automotive design. For example, an article on the design of the new Hummer EV concludes that “what historically took GM and other automakers five to seven years to develop and launch a new vehicle is expected to be cut to under three years.”

这种简化与使用虚拟现实和其他高级工具的新远程设计技术相结合，正在减少完成汽车设计所需的时间。例如，一篇关于新型悍马 EV 设计的文章总结道：“过去通用汽车和其他汽车制造商需要五到七年时间来开发和推出一款新车，预计将缩短到三年以下。”

As automotive OEMs move to simpler EV production platforms, designers need to be ready for the shorter design cycles. This will in turn, provide for further cost reductions. According to a McKinsey Survey on BEV Production[2], the time taken to bring a BEV to market is 5% shorter than an ICE vehicle. Additional improvements could further reduce development times to between 23 and 28 months (a 20% improvement).

随着汽车原始设备制造商转向更简单的 EV 生产平台，设计人员需要为更短的设计周期做好准备。这反过来又会进一步降低成本。根据一项关于 BEV 生产的麦肯锡调查[2]，将 BEV 推向市场所需的时间比 ICE 车辆短 5%。其他改进可以将开发时间进一步缩短至 23 至 28 个月（缩短 20%）。

The move to EV production will also give OEMs the option to pursue different sourcing strategies, which also impact vehicle design processes. According to McKinsey, many suppliers are already offering more components outside of their original core areas. In one example, EV powertrain components are less complex than equivalent ICE engines, so OEMs may find it more efficient to outsource those systems instead of designing them in-house. This in effect makes the drivetrain more of a commodity over time, and doing so may pose a greater risk for OEM brands that emphasize driving performance.

转向电动汽车生产还将使原始设备制造商可以选择采用不同的采购策略，这也会影响车辆设计流程。根据麦肯锡的说法，许多供应商已经在其原始核心领域之外提供更多组件。在一个示例中，EV 动力总成组件比等效的 ICE 发动机更简单，因此 OEM 可能会发现将这些系统外包而不是在内部设计它们更有效。随着时间的推移，这实际上使动力传动系统更像是一种商品，而这样做可能会给强调驾驶性能的 OEM 品牌带来更大的风险。

Helping OEMs Streamline EV Design

帮助原始设备制造商简化电动汽车设计

Microchip has a broad portfolio of electronic components that have been designed into many EV applications. These can be used to streamline all aspects of EV design:

Microchip 拥有广泛的电子元器件产品组合，已设计用于许多电动汽车应用。这些可用于简化 EV 设计的各个方面：

• Our AEC-Q100-qualified 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit MCUs (single and dual core), Digital Signal Controllers (DSCs) and MPUs are suitable for digital power conversion and other embedded control systems throughout the entire EV.

• We have rugged and reliable Silicon Carbide (SiC) MOSFETs and Diodes which are ideal for on-board charging and power inverter applications. These devices are produced on our low-risk manufacturing process, and they can be conveniently evaluated using our real-world reference designs.

• Our TrustAnchor100 (TA100) CryptoAutomotive™ security IC provides a way to implement security into existing systems without requiring costly redesigns. It provides external Hardware Security Module (HSM) support for secure boot, CAN message authentication, authentication of EV battery management systems, Transport Layer Security (TLS), Wireless Power Consortium (WPC) 1.3 Qi^® authentication, High-Bandwidth Digital Content Protection (HDCP) and many other features.

• We have a comprehensive portfolio of low-power analog solutions that includes a wide range of power management, linear, mixed signal, thermal management and interface products.

• Our inductive sensors are designed for the automotive environment to provide fast, precise position acquisition in rotary and linear position applications.

• 我们符合 AEC-Q100 标准的 8 位、16 位和 32 位 MCU（单核和双核）、数字信号控制器 (DSC) 和 MPU 适用于整个 EV 的数字电源转换和其他嵌入式控制系统。

• 我们拥有坚固可靠的碳化硅 (SiC) MOSFET 和二极管，非常适合车载充电和电源逆变器应用。这些设备是在我们的低风险制造过程中生产的，可以使用我们的真实参考设计方便地对其进行评估。

• 我们的TrustAnchor100 (TA100) CryptoAutomotive™ 安全 IC提供了一种在现有系统中实施安全性而无需进行昂贵的重新设计的方法。它为安全启动提供外部硬件安全模块 (HSM) 支持、CAN 消息认证、EV 电池管理系统认证、传输层安全 (TLS)、无线充电联盟 (WPC) 1.3 Qi ® 认证、高带宽数字内容^保护 ( HDCP) 和许多其他功能。

• 我们拥有全面的低功耗模拟解决方案组合，其中包括范围广泛的电源管理、线性、混合信号、热管理和接口产品。

• 我们的电感式传感器专为汽车环境而设计，可在旋转和线性位置应用中提供快速、精确的位置采集。

The Rivian R1T is an excellent example of how Microchip parts can be used in EV designs. It contains more than 50 of our ICs (including MCUs as well as analog, memory, RF, USB, Ethernet, timing and security devices), which are used in applications such as EV charging, telematics, central gateway module, Qi wireless charging and many more.

Rivian R1T 是 Microchip 部件如何用于 EV 设计的一个很好的例子。它包含我们的 50 多个 IC（包括 MCU 以及模拟、存储器、RF、USB、以太网、定时和安全设备），用于 EV 充电、远程信息处理、中央网关模块、Qi 无线充电和还有很多。

[1] https://wedc.org/export/market-intelligence/posts/china-plans-buildout-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure/

[2] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/trends-in-electric-vehicle-design

Article and pictures from Microchip-David Schellenberger