300 million jobs around the world could be automated!

在过去的几个月里，科技巨头已经宣布或开发了至少10个同类型的生成式AI平台，包括谷歌的Bard, Facebook母公司Meta平台的LLaMA，以及百度的ERNIE机器人。随着科技热潮席卷全球，人们开始思考生成式人工智能的广泛使用将对经济和就业市场产生什么影响。ChatGPT has been followed by at least 10 other Platforms announced or developed by tech giants in the last few months, including Google's Bard, LLaMA of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, and Baidu's ERNIE bot.  As the tech boom sweeps the globe, people are starting to wonder what impact the widespread use of generative AI will have on the economy and job market.

ChatGPT是一种生成式人工智能(GAI)，它还包括DALL-E、Stable Diffusion和Midjourney。与ChatGPT不同的是，它们根据用户的文字描述“生成”图像，但知名度远不及ChatGPT。ChatGPT is a type of Generative artificial intelligence (GAI), which also includes DALL-E, Stable Diffusion and Midjourney.  Unlike ChatGPT, they "generate" images based on a user's text description, but they are nowhere near as well-known.

高盛在一份新的研究报告中表示，生成式人工智能可能在10年内使全球GDP增长7%，但它也将给劳动力市场带来严重干扰。Generative AI could boost global GDP by 7% in 10 years, but it would also create significant disruptions in the labor market, Goldman Sachs says in a new research note.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师表示，人工智能(AI)技术的广泛采用有望大幅提高生产率，加速全球经济增长。Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is expected to lead to big productivity gains and accelerate global economic growth, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

布里格斯(Joseph Briggs)等高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道，大幅节省劳动力成本、创造新的就业机会以及失业工人生产率的提高，可能会导致产出激增，从而“显著”促进全球经济增长。A combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation and productivity gains among undisplaced workers could lead to a surge in output that would 'significantly' increase global growth, Goldman economists including Joseph Briggs wrote in a report.

高盛经济学家表示“一旦全球至少有一半的公司采用AI技术，那么未来10年全球GDP每年可能会增长7%。这大约相当于7万亿美元。”高盛经济学家表示。就全球范围而言，他们预测AI将推动生产率每年提高1.4个百分点。“一旦全球至少一半的公司采用人工智能（AI）技术，未来10年全球GDP可能以每年7%的速度增长，大约是7万亿美元。”他们预测，在全球范围内，人工智能将使生产率每年提高1.4个百分点。"Once at least half of the world's companies adopt AI technology, global GDP could grow by 7% a year for the next 10 years. That's about $7 trillion." Goldman Sachs economists said. Globally, they predict that AI will boost productivity by 1.4 percentage points a year.

上述经济学家们还表示，如果这项技术实现了它的承诺，它还将给劳动力市场带来“重大颠覆”，使大型经济体中相当于3亿全职工人面临自动化的风险。律师和行政人员将首先面临失败的风险。The economists also said that if the technology lived up to its promise, it would also bring "major disruption" to the Labour market, putting the equivalent of 300 million full-time workers in large economies at risk of automation.  Lawyers and administrators will be the first to risk failure.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的研究显示，人工智能领域的最新突破可能导致美国和欧元区四分之一的工作实现自动化。The latest breakthroughs in artificial intelligence could lead to one in four jobs in the US and eurozone being automated, according to research from Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)利用有关通常由数千个职业执行的任务的数据计算出，美国和欧洲约三分之二的工作在某种程度上受到人工智能自动化的影响。例如，在美国，63%的劳动力可能会受到人工智能自动化的影响。另外30%从事体力或户外工作的人将不受影响，尽管他们的工作可能会受到其他形式的自动化的影响。剩下的7%左右的美国工人所从事的工作中，至少有一半的任务可以由生成式人工智能完成，因此很容易被取代。Goldman Sachs, using data on tasks typically performed by thousands of professions, has calculated that about two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe are affected in some way by AI automation. In the United States, for example, 63 percent of the workforce could be affected by AI automation. Another 30 per cent of people with physical or outdoor jobs will be unaffected, although their jobs may be affected by other forms of automation. The remaining 7 per cent or so of US workers work in jobs where at least half of the tasks can be done by generative AI, and so are easily replaced.

在全球层面，体力劳动在发展中国家的就业中占了更大的份额。据估计，大约五分之一的工作可以由人工智能完成，这意味着在大型经济体中约有3亿个全职工作。At the global level, manual labor accounts for a larger share of employment in developing countries. It is estimated that about one in five jobs could be done by AI, which translates to about 300 million full-time jobs in large economies.

高盛还表示，如果企业对AI的投资继续以上世纪90年代软件投资的速度增长，到2030年，仅美国的投资就可能接近美国GDP的1%。Goldman also said that if corporate investment in AI continues to grow at the same rate as software investment in the 1990s, investment in the United States alone could approach 1 percent of U.S. GDP by 2030.

高盛经济学家写道:“短期内，生成式人工智能对劳动力需求的直接影响可能是负面的，”但它“对劳动生产率增长的影响仍将是正面的”。"In the near term, the direct impact of generative AI on Labour demand is likely to be negative," the Goldman economists wrote, but its "impact on Labour productivity growth will remain positive".